PDA

View Full Version : 20 Regrade Scrolls w/charms ALL FAIL?!? WHy?



Souleater
02-23-2015, 10:13 PM
During the last two days I've spent over 600g trying to regrade one piece of Arcane armor and I was even using regrade charms...over 20 attempts all failed. How is this possible? Am I bugged or something?

Update...

Now up to 40 attempts in row, all failed.

JerryBoyle
02-23-2015, 10:14 PM
RNGJesus is displeased with you and now you must offer him x amounts of gold.

lynnaria
02-23-2015, 10:15 PM
RNGJesus is displeased with you.

^
also, it's arcane. no chance of degrading so i wouldn't waste on charms. i would use that money on more attempts. that way you can fail on 60 attemps

Souleater
02-23-2015, 10:25 PM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.

Careby
02-23-2015, 10:33 PM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.
There is such a limit. You haven't yet reached it.

Nickers
02-23-2015, 10:35 PM
What piece of armor are you regrading... out of interest.

kimoy
02-23-2015, 10:46 PM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.

The limit is, wait for it, RNGeezus!

Zengiar
02-23-2015, 10:51 PM
Here's some reading for you OP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory

TranceFox
02-23-2015, 10:56 PM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.

What a popular game called Tera did for their plusing of items is for every failed attempt, it would have an increase enchant rate permanently added to it that would increase with each fail and reset upon success. This is because the community got fed up with rngesus and wait for it... THE COMPANY ACTUALLY LISTENED TO ITS PLAYERBASE! I know, thats shocking to hear right? Not only that, but they have direct buy on cash shop items except for the weapon skins that come out of rng boxes BUT WAIT! Those are all BOE so you can buy them with gold.

Tin Foil Hat Time?! Nah... There are actually companies that give a ♥♥♥♥ about its playerbase. If trion doesn't change I might leave soon even though i've been here since alpha. I really hope trion stops being greedy and listens to the playerbase but hell, who am I kidding here? It's trion after all.

Porks
02-23-2015, 11:00 PM
open a few coin purses... roll some rune dices... that may change your RNG.

Try at different time of day.


Server may only allow limited "success" at any given time period.

Saber
02-23-2015, 11:09 PM
What a popular game called Tera did for their plusing of items is for every failed attempt, it would have an increase enchant rate permanently added to it that would increase with each fail and reset upon success. This is because the community got fed up with rngesus and wait for it... THE COMPANY ACTUALLY LISTENED TO ITS PLAYERBASE! I know, thats shocking to hear right? Not only that, but they have direct buy on cash shop items except for the weapon skins that come out of rng boxes BUT WAIT! Those are all BOE so you can buy them with gold.

Tin Foil Hat Time?! Nah... There are actually companies that give a ♥♥♥♥ about its playerbase. If trion doesn't change I might leave soon even though i've been here since alpha. I really hope trion stops being greedy and listens to the playerbase but hell, who am I kidding here? It's trion after all.

And look where Tera is at now.... Players does not know what they want. They think they do, but they dont!

Brock9000
02-24-2015, 12:16 AM
A mere 600g wasted? Do a forum search so that you can get past this with some Schadenfreude

RNG is annoying but no idea if Trion has the power to change it, AA is XL games property. And South Korean/asian MMOs love RNG for some reason.

Morph Naima
02-24-2015, 01:56 AM
thats some love there!

MortucusInvictus
02-24-2015, 02:12 AM
cost me 1k g to get mine to heroic lol at least the rest of my gear was cheep to get i got 3 other pieces on first try and the other 2 took like 3 each rngesues can be crule some time,s;)

Quinsam
02-24-2015, 02:17 AM
20? start ♥♥♥♥♥ing at 32

Aicr
02-24-2015, 02:18 AM
its only RNG!! last time i wasted around 60 scrolls to get an armour part from unqiue to now arkan^^ and the other time i did 2 parts with 2 scrolls from unique to celest... but you can waste an amount of gold with it :) i wasted around 15k gold to get my full armour to celest...and i think 15k gold is not much for it...

Davados
02-24-2015, 02:25 AM
600g sounds a lot until you relise the scale of gold needed to get your item to the top. To get my Delph bow from grand to celst took roughly 9k gold. I didn't use charms until heroic then charm all the way. I broke my regrading up once i got it to heroic i gave it a break roughly 2 weeks to get my gold back up. The way i look at regrading now after my bow is be prepared to lose a lot of gold. I now dread regrading past unique as the loop of doom unique to arcane dam that hurts had it 4 times on my bow.

Yed
02-24-2015, 02:29 AM
Welcome to ArcheAge, where all your hard work, time spend and money reward you with absolutely nothing, unless you are lucky!

Lukax
02-24-2015, 03:29 AM
43 regrade with charm, i success a celestial piece amor. :D Try again man.

trin5
02-24-2015, 03:52 AM
welcome to one of many gold sinks which are in game

Aeducan76
02-24-2015, 04:01 AM
What really annoys me about this ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ regrading system - i donīt wanna see a circle, cross, or mirage donkey as an indicator - i want % numbers!!!

Afraid to show us our chances XL?

crazy
02-24-2015, 04:01 AM
Sorry to hear you have bad luck too. I spent 2k gold other day, all the gold i had saved up and ended up with my bow worse then when I started. Every time i try to regrade i get the same feeling as playing a slot machine.

trin5
02-24-2015, 04:05 AM
What really annoys me about this ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ regrading system - i donīt wanna see a circle, cross, or mirage donkey as an indicator - i want % numbers!!!

Afraid to show us our chances XL?

if they showed the low chances not many would try, its a normal Trick in korean/chinese games

Aeducan76
02-24-2015, 04:11 AM
if they showed the low chances not many would try, its a normal Trick in korean/chinese games

Well thanks for pointing out the obvious. Guess thatīs one reason they donīt allow addons, for there would be probably some way to read the value, which would be used, then considered an exploit by Trion, which they would not tell their players until some will figure out by getting a ban hammer.

HackTheGibson
02-24-2015, 04:12 AM
open a few coin purses... roll some rune dices... that may change your RNG.

Try at different time of day.


Server may only allow limited "success" at any given time period.

Is that theory confirmed? I would like to hear about it from gamedevs

rawfox
02-24-2015, 04:38 AM
During the last two days I've spent over 600g trying to regrade one piece of Arcane armor and I was even using regrade charms...over 20 attempts all failed. How is this possible? Am I bugged or something?

I'd write a bugreport ^^

solinvictus
02-24-2015, 05:08 AM
i am at 50 tries on wrist, with charm, no success to get unique ...

Kloee
02-24-2015, 06:37 AM
I heard this once before but to increase your odds you need to sacrifice a baby yata near a nui shrine.

Rahvin
02-24-2015, 06:58 AM
I heard this once before but to increase your odds you need to sacrifice a baby yata near a nui shrine.

No...it's seven virgin goats on the full moon.

JerryBoyle
02-24-2015, 08:29 AM
What a popular game called Tera did for their plusing of items is for every failed attempt, it would have an increase enchant rate permanently added to it that would increase with each fail and reset upon success. This is because the community got fed up with rngesus and wait for it... THE COMPANY ACTUALLY LISTENED TO ITS PLAYERBASE! I know, thats shocking to hear right? Not only that, but they have direct buy on cash shop items except for the weapon skins that come out of rng boxes BUT WAIT! Those are all BOE so you can buy them with gold.

Tin Foil Hat Time?! Nah... There are actually companies that give a ♥♥♥♥ about its playerbase. If trion doesn't change I might leave soon even though i've been here since alpha. I really hope trion stops being greedy and listens to the playerbase but hell, who am I kidding here? It's trion after all.
EME actually cares, they sent me a hand written holiday greetings card during their first christmas holiday as a thank you for supporting it during P2P. It's too bad more companies aren't like them. We'll be very lucky if Trion/XL changes their enchant rates to something like that.

DarkManiako
02-24-2015, 08:31 AM
It's trion after all.when you talk about hard coded stuff like regrading and crafting, it's XLGames.

iggy1212
02-24-2015, 08:31 AM
It happens but don't uses charms unless you are going from unique to celestial. Not worth the gold. I feel your pain though as it took five tries to get my chest from unique to celestial with red charm and lucky scroll. Just keep at it.

Porks
02-24-2015, 09:04 AM
Is that theory confirmed? I would like to hear about it from gamedevs

gullible, u think game dev will tell u how the games core function works?

Merax
02-24-2015, 10:45 AM
Is that theory confirmed? I would like to hear about it from gamedevs

Good luck getting anyone in Trion or XL to talk about RNG, specifically changing it.

I think everyone, especially the high tier crafters, has their own ritual regarding RNG. One of the guys in my guild does a /roll when he's going to craft. If it comes back in the 90's he proceeds, if he rolls anything else he opens a few purses and tries again.

I have my own little thing I go through, not sure if it works or not but I do seem to get higher ocean procs (I'm a tailor) than others.

TranceFox
02-24-2015, 11:45 AM
EME actually cares, they sent me a hand written holiday greetings card during their first christmas holiday as a thank you for supporting it during P2P. It's too bad more companies aren't like them. We'll be very lucky if Trion/XL changes their enchant rates to something like that.

Yup! I still have my founder title/mount from when I pre ordered when it was p2p only like this game SHOULD BE IMHO. But yeah, trion will NEVER be like EME because trion is trion and this is my first dealings with trion so i've learned a lot on how a company can truly disrespect its playerbase, something I never learned when I played Lineage II, WoW, Tera, Aion and Diablo 2/PSO/ PSOVer.2/PSU. Even ragnarok online treats their customers better haha... So damn sad man.

Grizabella
02-24-2015, 11:49 AM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.

I remember something about independent random trials. In other words, I think that each roll is completely independent of any that came before, like coin flips. So while flipping heads 100 times in a row is highly unlikely, it is not impossible given a large enough sample size. I would be willing to bet that someone out there has succeeded 60 straight times also.

Drask
02-24-2015, 12:32 PM
I really wish they would implement a streak breaker to the RNG in this game. Fail 5 or 10 times in a row, and the next is a guaranteed success.

Would make the game a lot more playable for people who don't want to use their credit card all day, especially given regrades gold cost per attempt.

Marth671
02-24-2015, 12:35 PM
Mytic hasla gear problem solved. Kappa

deathrow
02-24-2015, 02:00 PM
open a few coin purses... roll some rune dices... that may change your RNG.

Try at different time of day.



Server may only allow limited "success" at any given time period.

I totally agree with this theory, this game isn't based completely on RNG. I'm sure theirs some kind of program that only allows said amount of success in given amount of time

AppleSautts
02-24-2015, 02:21 PM
I had my first experience regrading some tassets from Grand to Heroic. It took 1 scroll to get to Rare, 10 scrolls to get to Arcane, and 1 scroll + charm to get to Heroic. Guess I'm one of the lucky ones.

deathrow
02-24-2015, 02:30 PM
After about 5 regrades and no success, you have to be an idiot to continue and fail more 15 times. And let's not ask why you think its a good idea to use charms.

Souleater
02-24-2015, 06:53 PM
I'm up to over 35 attempts now with no success. Crazy.

Morpayne
02-24-2015, 06:55 PM
It's all RNG but there's rumors of a daily cap on regrade success server wide. Personally Iv never had to use more than 5 scrolls per upgrade but again, RNG.

nPole
02-25-2015, 03:12 AM
Shouldn't there be a limit to how many times you can fail in row? Seems crazy to me.

In every game the rng routing has a break, after certain consecutive failed attempts it kicks in to give to the player a chance, it's not because they have compassion of you, but because it's convenient: there's a certain point where the "frustration" will make people abandon the game, and it's better to have a slightly less marginal profit, than not having it at all!

....but not Archeage. Why? Because it's tuned for another market, and it is never really be adjusted for the EU/US type of play, that isn't necessarily "easier", it's just different from Korea.
Because of this (and many other similar points...) people are leaving. Unfortunately TRION doesn't seem to understand, or more probably: they know it, but they haven't the complete control of the game, so their reaction time is slowed down by XLGames.

Lshock
02-25-2015, 03:17 AM
I myself got the pristine wilt from Serpentis, and thought hey what the hell let's regrade it. it got dropped at rare, I went to my house stood on my roof looking at the mountains and used 4 regrade scrolls, and bah it hit celestial, then used a temper, and wouldn't you know it max temper.

I agree this game is broken and needs fixing, I am so mad I wasted like 200G and 4 regrade scrolls on that ! to only get celestial ! :rolleyes:

Gonzothegreat198
02-25-2015, 04:11 AM
What a popular game called Tera did for their plusing of items is for every failed attempt, it would have an increase enchant rate permanently added to it that would increase with each fail and reset upon success. This is because the community got fed up with rngesus and wait for it... THE COMPANY ACTUALLY LISTENED TO ITS PLAYERBASE! I know, thats shocking to hear right? Not only that, but they have direct buy on cash shop items except for the weapon skins that come out of rng boxes BUT WAIT! Those are all BOE so you can buy them with gold.

Tin Foil Hat Time?! Nah... There are actually companies that give a ♥♥♥♥ about its playerbase. If trion doesn't change I might leave soon even though i've been here since alpha. I really hope trion stops being greedy and listens to the playerbase but hell, who am I kidding here? It's trion after all.

Here is the question though. Does Enmasse have the development Rights to make these kind of changes? If they do, that would be why it was done. However, if they do not, then they are in the same situation as Trion, and it was Bluehole that saw the changes were needed and implemented them. I am sure there's a lot about Archeage that Trion would like to fix, but without development rights and access, what they can do is severely limited and at the whim of XLGames. As has been said time and again, if you want a company to direct your anger at, try XL first. Trion is getting screwed by them just as much as we are.

Siobhan
02-25-2015, 04:46 AM
ok... for the OP and anyone else who didn't read the first 40 iterations of RNG theory:

If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better. On try 174,000,000 you have the same 1 in 175,223,510 chance that you did on the first try.

I didn't choose the numbers in the odds above randomly. Those numbers are the actual odds of winning the jackpot in a Powerball drawing. Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets. Your chances are exactly the same on the last try as they are on the first try. Also, like Powerball, if you can't afford to play, then don't buy the damn ticket.

Gods Child
02-25-2015, 04:50 AM
ok... for the OP and anyone else who didn't read the first 40 iterations of RNG theory:

If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better. On try 174,000,000 you have the same 1 in 175,223,510 chance that you did on the first try.

I didn't choose the numbers in the odds above randomly. Those numbers are the actual odds of winning the jackpot in a Powerball drawing. Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets. Your chances are exactly the same on the last try as they are on the first try. Also, like Powerball, if you can't afford to play, then don't buy the damn ticket.

That's not exactly true.
If the chances in the lottery are 1/175,223,510 and you buy 2 tickets then your chances go to 2/175,223,510 (assuming you didn't buy 2 tickets with the same numbers)

But with the regrade it is the same chance each time, so it's actually worse....

nPole
02-25-2015, 05:07 AM
ok... for the OP and anyone else who didn't read the first 40 iterations of RNG theory:

If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better. On try 174,000,000 you have the same 1 in 175,223,510 chance that you did on the first try.

I didn't choose the numbers in the odds above randomly. Those numbers are the actual odds of winning the jackpot in a Powerball drawing. Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets. Your chances are exactly the same on the last try as they are on the first try. Also, like Powerball, if you can't afford to play, then don't buy the damn ticket.

If you buy 175,223,510 powerball tickets, you'll win with a 100% chance; if you try to regrade infinite times in AA, you'll never reach a 100% chance of success (in theory you could never succeed), this is why a break routine is necessary and it is present in most games based on random numbers (even the slot machines in the casino's has one...).
(the above isn't necessary a real example.. but it's how the math works here)

Souleater
02-25-2015, 07:37 PM
5 more tries tonight, 5 more failures, over 40 total

game is *&%$#

Souleater
02-26-2015, 08:37 AM
Starting to think my account is bugged. On 40 attempts, I should have a 99.988% chance of at least one success.

Voluntaris
02-26-2015, 08:40 AM
Starting to think my account is bugged. On 40 attempts, I should have a 99.988% chance of at least one success.

You do not have a 99.988% chance of at least one success.

Each attempt you have the same percentage chance of success (not withstanding different types of regrade charms). Said chance is not cumulative over consecutive attempts. It's possible to fail 100 times in a row. It's also possible to have success 100 times in a row. That's RNG for you.

I personally find that if I get 5 failures in a row, it's best to stop and wait to try again in a few hours or a day later.

Voluntaris
02-26-2015, 08:43 AM
ok... for the OP and anyone else who didn't read the first 40 iterations of RNG theory:

If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better. On try 174,000,000 you have the same 1 in 175,223,510 chance that you did on the first try.

I didn't choose the numbers in the odds above randomly. Those numbers are the actual odds of winning the jackpot in a Powerball drawing. Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets. Your chances are exactly the same on the last try as they are on the first try. Also, like Powerball, if you can't afford to play, then don't buy the damn ticket.

Thank you for providing some rationality, as I've been trying to explain this to many as well.

Souleater
02-26-2015, 08:47 AM
Thank you for providing some rationality, as I've been trying to explain this to many as well.

Yes, your change for each roll is the same, but the probability of not rolling a 1 on a 4 sided dice (25%) forty times in a row is only 0.012%.

Learn stats my friend.

hackisback
02-26-2015, 08:58 AM
I feel your pain, as my frustration has reached quitting the game. Hours upon hours of cutting trees, making paper, buying sunpoints, using every sunpoint I have been awarded, easily 2000 gold in game, because the upgrade try costs 45 gold. I have an Epherium katana that has downgraded to arcane and upgraded to heroic a minimum of 50 times, there is no logic in the system implemented, 100 dollars, real money, for what ? So they can laugh all the way to the bank. My last dollar has been spent.

kingsnafu
02-26-2015, 09:23 AM
make it easier to regrade the server will be flooded with divine gear and noobs will just complain cause everyone has divine gear and how they have no chance to kill anyone. Reguardless what you do ppl gonna complain but divine gear being so hard to obtain is far better then the latter.

and why is it such a big surprise to people getting the best gear in the game is actually a challenge, go play WoW if you want everything handed to you in a day.

Souleater
02-26-2015, 09:27 AM
make it easier to regrade the server will be flooded with divine gear and noobs will just complain cause everyone has divine gear and how they have no chance to kill anyone. Reguardless what you do ppl gonna complain but divine gear being so hard to obtain is far better then the latter.

and why is it such a big surprise to people getting the best gear in the game is actually a challenge, go play WoW if you want everything handed to you in a day.

I have regarded lots of gear from green all the way to orange, Sometimes it takes 1 scroll, on average it takes 5, but with this last set 40+ failures in a row. Something is wrong. I seriously think I am bugged.

Careby
02-26-2015, 09:29 AM
...If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better...

...Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets.

Actually if you buy two powerball tickets your odds do change, from 1 in 175,223,510 to 2 in 175,223,510. Of course each ticket has the same odds of success as any other, but let's not be silly. If you buy all 175,223,510 powerball tickets covering all the possible combinations, you're going to "win". You won't profit, and I have no idea how you'll manage the team that buys the tickets, but you're odds of winning are 1:1. Which is different than Archeage, since each regrading attempt is a new "drawing".

Even in Archeage, your combined odds of regrading success are better with two attempts than with only one, IF we can assume RNGesus does not hate you.

Wytchblades
02-26-2015, 09:36 AM
^
also, it's arcane. no chance of degrading so i wouldn't waste on charms. i would use that money on more attempts. that way you can fail on 60 attemps
This. Below heroic do not use charms. If it fails like 5 times in a row. Do another items come back later. I find Chest to be the hardest to regrade. Here i thought the RNGods loved me :(

Harlequinn
02-26-2015, 09:43 AM
i hate it too OP i hate it too. especially if you buy ♥♥♥♥ on cash shop to "help" better your odds. and you dont get crap....

ZeroSumPhase
02-26-2015, 09:57 AM
The number of players prescribing to the "Gambler's Fallacy" in this thread is amusing. "Try again later." "Do something else and then try again." "I have better luck at X time."

That's... not how RNG works.

Gambler's Fallacy: The incorrect belief that a certain random event is more likely to occur after another event or series of events. (I just had 20 scrolls in a row fail, so this one should work; or, I just flipped a coin 20 times and it landed on heads each time, so now it's more likely to land on tails.)

Time generally isn't a factor in random number generators. Waiting until later will have zero effect on your chance at a regrade. You're applying the concept of time to a computer program, where time isn't a mitigating or enhancing factor. Now, if we got a buff at 20:00 hours in-game that said, 1% increase to your "luck", that would be an enhancing factor related to time.... but we don't.

hooligan
02-26-2015, 10:00 AM
RNGJesus is displeased with you and now you must offer him x amounts of gold.

this

10char

Ravyn
02-26-2015, 10:05 AM
Here's my take on it.

RNG is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ and the percentage of success is very low on EVERYTHING in this game. Koreans love it that way for some reason; different cultures are different.

I refuse to waste my time and money and energy and frustration on a lottery.

The stat differences from Delphinad/Ephrieum vs. GHA and Hasla are not THAT big.

Farm Hasla weps. up to T3 for your weapons and run GHA til you get all heroic drops. You'll have a effort:reward ratio that is tremendously better than wasting gold and credits on regrades and charms which have an abysmal success rate.

That is my advice for people who don't want to spend a lot of money or make this game their life for a few months.

hooligan
02-26-2015, 10:13 AM
i want to make this game my life for a few months

Psychasthenia
02-26-2015, 10:31 AM
open a few coin purses... roll some rune dices... that may change your RNG.

Try at different time of day.

Server may only allow limited "success" at any given time period.
That shouldn't matter at all. Any properly designed RNG doesn't need to be seeded by other rolls like that. Since he didn't do this all in one sitting he was probably already pulling the lever harvesting crops (RNG), dealing damage to monsters or players (RNG), turning in tradepacks (RNG for bonus), or opening Divine Boxes (RNG). It is literally everywhere in this game... You can barely do anything short of standing AFK in a town without a dice roll occurring.



Is that theory confirmed? I would like to hear about it from gamedevs
Pure speculation.

Kapnobatai
02-26-2015, 10:39 AM
Regrade Machine
http://i112.photobucket.com/albums/n178/stemajzl/TrinoSlot_zpsvhtm5cfe.jpg (http://s112.photobucket.com/user/stemajzl/media/TrinoSlot_zpsvhtm5cfe.jpg.html)

UserName6
02-26-2015, 10:57 AM
The number of players prescribing to the "Gambler's Fallacy" in this thread is amusing. "Try again later." "Do something else and then try again." "I have better luck at X time."

That's... not how RNG works.

Gambler's Fallacy: The incorrect belief that a certain random event is more likely to occur after another event or series of events. (I just had 20 scrolls in a row fail, so this one should work; or, I just flipped a coin 20 times and it landed on heads each time, so now it's more likely to land on tails.)

Time generally isn't a factor in random number generators. Waiting until later will have zero effect on your chance at a regrade. You're applying the concept of time to a computer program, where time isn't a mitigating or enhancing factor. Now, if we got a buff at 20:00 hours in-game that said, 1% increase to your "luck", that would be an enhancing factor related to time.... but we don't.

Oddly though to calculate randomness in an environment that has no semblance of random computers do use time as a factor to help create a random variable.

Tormentedone
02-26-2015, 11:07 AM
There is no such thing as random in a computer program. Algorithms use something as a seed. Time is generally one of them.

Siobhan
02-26-2015, 11:35 AM
That's not exactly true.
If the chances in the lottery are 1/175,223,510 and you buy 2 tickets then your chances go to 2/175,223,510 (assuming you didn't buy 2 tickets with the same numbers)

Actually, your total chances go up, however each set of numbers has the exact same odds. Same with regrading. Your overall chances go up slightly, but each set has the same odds as each other.

But with the regrade it is the same chance each time, so it's actually worse....


If you buy 175,223,510 powerball tickets, you'll win with a 100% chance; if you try to regrade infinite times in AA, you'll never reach a 100% chance of success (in theory you could never succeed), this is why a break routine is necessary and it is present in most games based on random numbers (even the slot machines in the casino's has one...).
(the above isn't necessary a real example.. but it's how the math works here)

The only way you could guarantee success is is every single one of those numbers are different. If you choose the "random ticket generator" then you have no way of knowing the exact overall odds. Even if you purchased individual numbers, each number has the exact same odds as every other number.

Careby
02-26-2015, 11:40 AM
...Even if you purchased individual numbers, each number has the exact same odds as every other number...
For each drawing, one set of numbers has a 100% chance of winning. Unfortunately I cannot determine what set of numbers that is until after the drawing is over.

Ravyn
02-26-2015, 11:41 AM
Actually, your total chances go up, however each set of numbers has the exact same odds. Same with regrading. Your overall chances go up slightly, but each set has the same odds as each other.

But with the regrade it is the same chance each time, so it's actually worse....



The only way you could guarantee success is is every single one of those numbers are different. If you choose the "random ticket generator" then you have no way of knowing the exact overall odds. Even if you purchased individual numbers, each number has the exact same odds as every other number.

That's a good point. Regrading is actually worse than a lottery.

Porkloin
02-26-2015, 11:47 AM
I would be willing to bet that someone out there has succeeded 60 straight times also.

:D Now you are talking about some truly long odds.

EmmJay
02-26-2015, 11:50 AM
Here's my take on it.

RNG is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ and the percentage of success is very low on EVERYTHING in this game. Koreans love it that way for some reason; different cultures are different.

I refuse to waste my time and money and energy and frustration on a lottery.

The stat differences from Delphinad/Ephrieum vs. GHA and Hasla are not THAT big.

Farm Hasla weps. up to T3 for your weapons and run GHA til you get all heroic drops. You'll have a effort:reward ratio that is tremendously better than wasting gold and credits on regrades and charms which have an abysmal success rate.

That is my advice for people who don't want to spend a lot of money or make this game their life for a few months.

lol and i will 2 shot u

not a big difference between gha and delph.....u sir have lost your ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ mind

Ravyn
02-26-2015, 11:58 AM
lol and i will 2 shot u

not a big difference between gha and delph.....u sir have lost your ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ mind

It's a difference but it is not insurmountable. the difference in DPS between a Hasla T3 and a Delphinad is, what, maybe 100 - 150 DPS per second? That means in 10 seconds you can deal 1,000 to 1,500 more damage with a Delph than you can with a Hasla. That sounds like a lot, but you have to realize most 1v1 PvP fights are over in the first 3 seconds. Whoever gets in the first CC wins 90% of the time. Delph armor or weapons may buy you a little extra time but it doesn't make you invincible.

DataDog
02-26-2015, 12:54 PM
Here is a post with information on chances for regrades:
http://www.reddit.com/r/archeage/comments/2hwpm2/guide_to_regrading_socketing_enchanting/

But I fear the chances are MUCH lower than stated in this reddit post. Keep in mind the numbers provided a likely rough estimates as XL Games would probably refuse providing the actual rates.

Mangix
02-26-2015, 01:05 PM
why didnt you just buy the heroic version of that piece of gear for like 50g more after like 2-3 fails...

Souleater
02-26-2015, 01:17 PM
why didnt you just buy the heroic version of that piece of gear for like 50g more after like 2-3 fails...

Why would I after 2-3 fails when it's take 4-5 attempts for other pieces, sometimes more, sometime less. I had know way of knowing it was going to be over 40 failures, and I am not going to give up. I'll keep trying until it happens. That's the the way the game works.

Mangix
02-26-2015, 01:22 PM
Why would I after 2-3 fails when it's take 4-5 attempts for other pieces, sometimes more, sometime less. I had know way of knowing it was going to be over 40 failures, and I am not going to give up. I'll keep trying until it happens. That's the the way the game works.

The game is punishing you for being ******ed.

Souleater
02-26-2015, 01:50 PM
The game is punishing you for being ******ed.

Really? You think the game has picked me out from among the thousands of other players to "punish" me? Really, sounds like a conspiracy is afoot. Good think I'm not a ****** like you who believes in that ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥.

BananaS
02-26-2015, 03:02 PM
maybe you character is unlucky, I also failed last week 20 regrades in a ROW on arcane epherium lake gloves. Then I made an Alt and I KID YOU NOT, 50% of the iron veins I mined with that char procced fortune veins, I was mind-blown. guess wich character is going to regrade my next stuff? xD

Psychasthenia
02-26-2015, 05:19 PM
maybe you character is unlucky, I also failed last week 20 regrades in a ROW on arcane epherium lake gloves. Then I made an Alt and I KID YOU NOT, 50% of the iron veins I mined with that char procced fortune veins, I was mind-blown. guess wich character is going to regrade my next stuff? xD
Why do you believe the character pulling the lever has any effect on the RNG outcome?

Stonin
02-26-2015, 07:24 PM
It's a difference but it is not insurmountable. the difference in DPS between a Hasla T3 and a Delphinad is, what, maybe 100 - 150 DPS per second? That means in 10 seconds you can deal 1,000 to 1,500 more damage with a Delph than you can with a Hasla. That sounds like a lot, but you have to realize most 1v1 PvP fights are over in the first 3 seconds. Whoever gets in the first CC wins 90% of the time. Delph armor or weapons may buy you a little extra time but it doesn't make you invincible.

DPS doesn't work that way. Other factors such as Strength multiply the DPS by a factor. That 100 turns into 1000 (as a basic example).

Dooku
02-26-2015, 07:27 PM
tried my weapon to unique took me over 100 attempts with every heroic attempt being with a charm, the process of this regrade was 2 months and in the end someone else regraded it for me in less then 5 tries from arcane to unique

Souleater
02-26-2015, 10:40 PM
tried my weapon to unique took me over 100 attempts with every heroic attempt being with a charm, the process of this regrade was 2 months and in the end someone else regraded it for me in less then 5 tries from arcane to unique

Exactly, why are some of us getting screwed?

Knife
02-27-2015, 02:53 AM
Exactly, why are some of us getting screwed?
I used 6 regrade scrolls to get my LVL 24 belt (yes, it may sound stupid, but if it procs right after illustrious i could have a higher delphinad grade than anybody else. I will take the risk though). Took me from green to Unique. The first time i used a charm was from Heroic to Unique which downgraded it to arcane again. After that I did derp/yolo and got to Unique without a charm.

Charms are a joke tbh. xD

YouTRIPPIN
02-27-2015, 03:02 AM
What a popular game called Tera did for their plusing of items is for every failed attempt, it would have an increase enchant rate permanently added to it that would increase with each fail and reset upon success. This is because the community got fed up with rngesus and wait for it... THE COMPANY ACTUALLY LISTENED TO ITS PLAYERBASE! I know, thats shocking to hear right? Not only that, but they have direct buy on cash shop items except for the weapon skins that come out of rng boxes BUT WAIT! Those are all BOE so you can buy them with gold.

Tin Foil Hat Time?! Nah... There are actually companies that give a ♥♥♥♥ about its playerbase. If trion doesn't change I might leave soon even though i've been here since alpha. I really hope trion stops being greedy and listens to the playerbase but hell, who am I kidding here? It's trion after all.

heh i like how you blame everything on trion...

welcome to a korean based mmo (MADE BY XLGAMES) where you live in rng, breathe rng and embrace rng.

Jinsky
02-27-2015, 04:44 AM
Starting to think my account is bugged. On 40 attempts, I should have a 99.988% chance of at least one success.


The game is punishing you for being ******ed.


Really? You think the game has picked me out from among the thousands of other players to "punish" me? Really, sounds like a conspiracy is afoot. Good think I'm not a ****** like you who believes in that ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥.


Exactly, why are some of us getting screwed?

OP bought a Mirage Donkey based on an unintended gameplay knowing it was bugged, asked for a refund months later because it was fixed. I say it's karma :)

What's so special about this specific item? Is it a delph weapon atleast? Common sense would be to cut your losses or try something different.

Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=insanity

CUPCAKEY
02-27-2015, 05:39 AM
You will have most of your delph gear till patch 2.0 (or if you get lucky with ayanad) there needs to be some sort of RNG in play or you would have the best gear grade and get bored when there is no gear progression. Archeage gear progression will never be like wow. So stop rushing and enjoy the ride.

Tip that someone else mentioned again Open coinpurses (Continue till you don't get anything) then try the regrades ;P if that doesn't work for you then I heard sacrificing something in the name of RNGesus can help :3

Fygmint
02-27-2015, 08:45 AM
What would be minimally helpful is if Trion would publish the odds somewhere. In other words tell you that you have 1 chance in 10 of getting your prize.

By knowing the odds a player can avoid ridiculous games. If he knows that he only has one chance in 1000 of winning he could determine that it is a sucker game. If it is one chance in 5 he might thinks the odds justify 10 or 20 potential losses. Many states or countries require the odds be published on all games of chance to give the player some kind of informed choice.

However, knowing that he has 1 in 10 chances of winning doesn't mean that after 10 tries he will win it just means that each try is 1 chance in 10 to win. Those odds should average out in the very long run but an individual might still have to try 20 or 30 times in the short run. He may hit on the 1st try or the 20th.

A better solution would be a system where you can put in the number of boxes or tries you want to attempt, like in a playing or gambling session, each failure in that session would increase the odds in your favor on the next box or try of the same kind until you cancel the session.

Casino's are in business to take your money, so is Trion. They really don't want an informed public because it will cut into their bottom line.

Zenhii
02-27-2015, 09:09 AM
The number of players prescribing to the "Gambler's Fallacy" in this thread is amusing. "Try again later." "Do something else and then try again." "I have better luck at X time."

That's... not how RNG works.

Gambler's Fallacy: The incorrect belief that a certain random event is more likely to occur after another event or series of events. (I just had 20 scrolls in a row fail, so this one should work; or, I just flipped a coin 20 times and it landed on heads each time, so now it's more likely to land on tails.)

Time generally isn't a factor in random number generators. Waiting until later will have zero effect on your chance at a regrade. You're applying the concept of time to a computer program, where time isn't a mitigating or enhancing factor. Now, if we got a buff at 20:00 hours in-game that said, 1% increase to your "luck", that would be an enhancing factor related to time.... but we don't.

More like player superstition. We assume regrading is random, but at the end of the day we only have the devs word on it (unless someone has managed to hack the source code?) and they won't even publish the % values.

If, at launch, you could dublicate credits by using apex while simultaneously entering a portal, then maybe you can increase your regrade succes chance by facing the sunset at a 45 degree camera angle while standing on a wild "planted" bear cub and playing "house of the rising sun" on a sax?

Anegia
02-27-2015, 09:19 AM
i made 2 weeks ago my hasla t3 greatclub from heroic to unique with 1 try. then i try to regrade it to celestial and it failed back to arcan. 2 scrolls later it was unique again.

now i let rng jesus alone.

Looop
02-27-2015, 09:22 AM
Is that theory confirmed? I would like to hear about it from gamedevs

not sure if bs or not but sometimes I can open 100-200purses get nothing. Stop for a minute use every buff I have and open again and wolla sun crystal etc. :s

Geekersgames
02-27-2015, 11:41 AM
There is such a limit. You haven't yet reached it.

LMFAO...best comment ever, espeically since i failed 47 times in a a rare to arcane regrade.

Psychasthenia
02-27-2015, 12:45 PM
not sure if bs or not but sometimes I can open 100-200purses get nothing. Stop for a minute use every buff I have and open again and wolla sun crystal etc. :s
It is BS. Those aren't big enough samples to show anything. For all you know if you had more purses to open you would have started rolling in crystals. It's just the way the human mind interprets results that are too random for us to find the real pattern - we make one up!

Sct
02-27-2015, 12:51 PM
because you need to pay more

Psychasthenia
02-27-2015, 01:01 PM
OP bought a Mirage Donkey based on an unintended gameplay knowing it was bugged, asked for a refund months later because it was fixed. I say it's karma :)

What's so special about this specific item? Is it a delph weapon atleast? Common sense would be to cut your losses or try something different.

Insanity - Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=insanity
That definition of insanity only applies to predictable outcomes. It has no relevance to any event sufficiently random to be outside the scope of the human brain to predict. Having an X% chance of achieving something and failing 40 times is no more "insane" than succeeding on the first try. We all know that both extremes are possible. The issue is that once the chances get particularly low (below say 20%) you get awful streaks of failures that can go on and on. The only truly insane part of this whole process is that anyone would develop a game mechanic like this instead of allowing players to gradually build up their equipment grades without the RNG involved. It's just lazy programming and they know most of the western audience hates it, yet they simply don't care.

Fulkes
02-27-2015, 01:07 PM
ok... for the OP and anyone else who didn't read the first 40 iterations of RNG theory:

If you have a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of getting something, it doesn't mean that if you try 175,223,510 times your odds get better. On try 174,000,000 you have the same 1 in 175,223,510 chance that you did on the first try.

I didn't choose the numbers in the odds above randomly. Those numbers are the actual odds of winning the jackpot in a Powerball drawing. Regrading, like Powerball, doesn't change the odds to your favor just because you buy more tickets. Your chances are exactly the same on the last try as they are on the first try. Also, like Powerball, if you can't afford to play, then don't buy the damn ticket.

Finally someone who understands probability! There is a difference between string probability and single probabilities. If you flip a coin 3 times, your chance of coming up with heads on each toss is 50/50. (This is the system that regrade scrolls work off of. It's single probability). Probability doesn't magically become better the more times you flip the coin. Look up Gambler's Fallacy.. I think a lot of people suffer from it here.

Souleater
02-27-2015, 02:39 PM
Finally someone who understands probability! There is a difference between string probability and single probabilities. If you flip a coin 3 times, your chance of coming up with heads on each toss is 50/50. (This is the system that regrade scrolls work off of. It's single probability). Probability doesn't magically become better the more times you flip the coin. Look up Gambler's Fallacy.. I think a lot of people suffer from it here.

Who cares, you are splitting hairs.

vagrant
02-27-2015, 05:11 PM
If you buy 175,223,510 powerball tickets, you'll win with a 100% chance

this is not true. read up on probability theory. if it were the case, then flipping a coin twice would have a 100% chance of coming up heads at least once.

Jinsky
02-27-2015, 05:13 PM
That definition of insanity only applies to predictable outcomes. It has no relevance to any event sufficiently random to be outside the scope of the human brain to predict. Having an X% chance of achieving something and failing 40 times is no more "insane" than succeeding on the first try. We all know that both extremes are possible. The issue is that once the chances get particularly low (below say 20%) you get awful streaks of failures that can go on and on. The only truly insane part of this whole process is that anyone would develop a game mechanic like this instead of allowing players to gradually build up their equipment grades without the RNG involved. It's just lazy programming and they know most of the western audience hates it, yet they simply don't care.

Actually, it's perfect in this situation. As your statement expresses that the game mechanic is a product of insanity, therefore to repeatedly continue said act would also be an act of insanity. Also, I wouldn't call it lazy programming, but a method that requires more work and luck on the players side. If you remove the RNG aspect, it would not be so fulfilling or have that same level of achievement of producing end game tier items. It would also indirectly remove one of the money sinks that help control the economy. If eventually everyone has all end game tier items in a short span of time, people will have no more goals left and stop playing which would lead to the game dying earlier than expected. And since you say most of the western audience hates it, it's just a way of saying that the western audience is lazy and would not work hard for it. If you want a sure thing, you may want to head over to PTS and say a command and have all your gears without any work. Or you can just buy a regraded item from someone else and not have to deal with the RNG yourself.

vagrant
02-27-2015, 05:28 PM
Finally someone who understands probability! There is a difference between string probability and single probabilities. If you flip a coin 3 times, your chance of coming up with heads on each toss is 50/50. (This is the system that regrade scrolls work off of. It's single probability). Probability doesn't magically become better the more times you flip the coin. Look up Gambler's Fallacy.. I think a lot of people suffer from it here.

well, regrading using multiple scrolls does give you a better than 50% chance of success than just trying once, of course.

if i flip a coin, in theory i can either get heads or tails... there are 2 possible outcomes, and heads is 1 of those outcomes...

possible outcomes:
- heads <---- winning
- tails

so my chances of winning are 1/2.

if i flip a coin twice... here are all of the possible outcomes...

possible outcomes:
heads then heads
heads then tails
tails then heads
tails then tails

if all i have to do to succeed is get heads once.. then i actually have 3 chances in 4 possible outcomes of that happening because...

possible outcomes:
heads then heads <---- winning
heads then tails <---- winning
tails then heads <---- winning
tails then tails

so the more times you regrade the greater chance you have of getting a successful regrade.

Jinsky
02-27-2015, 06:09 PM
...so the more times you regrade the greater chance you have of getting a successful regrade.

Correction: The more times you regrade, the more chances you have of getting a successful regrade.

Your 50% chance does not increase with succeeding flips of the coin, as each flip is independent of the next. On the flip side, what you're talking about is the probability of winning with increasing flips of the coin.

Fulkes
02-27-2015, 09:18 PM
Correction: The more times you regrade, the more chances you have of getting a successful regrade.

Your 50% chance does not increase with succeeding flips of the coin, as each flip is independent of the next. On the flip side, what you're talking about is the probability of winning with increasing flips of the coin.

I see what you did there.

Also, correct. This is the difference between string probability and single probability. Two entirely different phenomena. Your probability per each scroll does not go up. You are stuck with the static 10%...just accept it and enjoy it.

Jinsky
02-27-2015, 10:18 PM
I see what you did there.

Also, correct. This is the difference between string probability and single probability. Two entirely different phenomena. Your probability per each scroll does not go up. You are stuck with the static 10%...just accept it and enjoy it.

I did nothing wrong, I promise! Jokes aside, I hope these people don't go buying a lottery ticket expecting if they buy tickets everyday, choosing different numbers each time, expecting they are that much closer to winning. RNG is like a dice roll, but instead of having a die with 4 or 6 sides, it is like a die with 100 sides. They should play classic board games like D&D and see how these things really work in a smaller scale.

Psychasthenia
02-27-2015, 11:47 PM
If you remove the RNG aspect, it would not be so fulfilling or have that same level of achievement of producing end game tier items.
Different strokes then. I would never personally consider it an achievement to roll an upgradeable piece of equipment from Illustrious through Epherium (and soon Delphinad) when I have no direct control on the outcome whatsoever.


It would also indirectly remove one of the money sinks that help control the economy. If eventually everyone has all end game tier items in a short span of time, people will have no more goals left and stop playing which would lead to the game dying earlier than expected.
There are plenty of other ways to put a gold sink in this game that effects players on a more regular and less random basis. Proponents of the RNG crafting and upgrading systems seem to think it's all or nothing. Do you honestly think that the same amount of gold couldn't be removed from the economy from simply adding in gold sink items sold by NPC vendors that were used for Conqueror's and higher tiers? That is just one quick example that takes me seconds to think of... The durability loss rate and repair costs are already ingame and can be easily tweaked to take gold out of circulation. Repair costs have already been increased since the game went live. The costs of seeds and saplings could be adjusted too with a simple change to some data files. There is absolutely no reason a RNG-free crafting and regrading system would have to give players end-game gear any faster than we currently have. Increasing the material costs relative to the poor chances currently would be a net balance. If you can't see that far ahead there is nothing I can do about that.


And since you say most of the western audience hates it, it's just a way of saying that the western audience is lazy and would not work hard for it. If you want a sure thing, you may want to head over to PTS and say a command and have all your gears without any work. Or you can just buy a regraded item from someone else and not have to deal with the RNG yourself.
There you go again equating RNG with "work". I honestly don't understand how getting lucky or unlucky is the same thing as effort to some people. If upgrading a piece of gear costs 100 units of X with a 10% chance of success versus costing 1000 units of X with a 100% chance of success the overall economic situation will be exactly the same over a sufficiently large sample pool. As far as I can tell, the only difference seems to be that in some people they are under the delusion that when they roll better than the raw chances in a small sample size that they personally deserved that "success".

MaceoPlex
02-28-2015, 01:11 AM
During the last two days I've spent over 600g trying to regrade one piece of Arcane armor and I was even using regrade charms...over 20 attempts all failed. How is this possible? Am I bugged or something?

Update...

Now up to 40 attempts in row, all failed.

When you kill a Red and kick his corpse , next 50 regrades will fail ... Its a known fact !!1

Geekersgames
02-28-2015, 02:22 AM
XL should get with capital one.

SAY THERE! would you like to win at archeage? then sign up with the no APR until 2020 captial one rewards card. WHATS INSIDE YOUR WALLET!!!

LMFAO

vagrant
02-28-2015, 02:44 AM
Correction: The more times you regrade, the more chances you have of getting a successful regrade.

Your 50% chance does not increase with succeeding flips of the coin, as each flip is independent of the next. On the flip side, what you're talking about is the probability of winning with increasing flips of the coin.

sorry, wasn't a correction. "more chances" = "a greater chance" as i very clearly showed that 3/4 is more of a chance than 1/2. do you honestly think i laid all that out only to conclude with the gambler's fallacy? and it wasn't the flip side of what i was saying, it was exactly what i was saying.

Narrian
02-28-2015, 03:19 AM
How is it, that you have 2 cry posts on the front page? Just stop playing.

DaBossKitty
02-28-2015, 05:14 AM
Why would you waste cash or gold on charms............

xPariah
02-28-2015, 06:38 AM
900 gold later I am in full celestial epherium earth, you just didnt 360 no scope a bot and sacrifice a goosling to RNJesus

http://static-cdn.jtvnw.net/jtv_user_pictures/panel-57212933-image-060fca8a7c2745a3-320.jpeg

Fulkes
02-28-2015, 12:12 PM
sorry, wasn't a correction. "more chances" = "a greater chance" as i very clearly showed that 3/4 is more of a chance than 1/2. do you honestly think i laid all that out only to conclude with the gambler's fallacy? and it wasn't the flip side of what i was saying, it was exactly what i was saying.

You are conflating two different types of probability. The probability of getting a string of heads is entirely independent from flipping the coin itself. Your assumption here is that if you get tails 5 times in a row, your probability of flipping the coin the 6th time and getting heads is increased. This is a erroneous assumption. The coin flip is always 50/50 because..there are only two sides. By your logic, on the 6th coin flip, the coin would have magically gained two extra "heads" sides thus increasing the odds to 3/4.

The Gambler's Fallacy assumes that if something happens less frequently than assumed, that it would happen more frequently in the future. Although this is quite appealing to the human mind, it is false.

rawfox
02-28-2015, 12:22 PM
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--UrkHmr75--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/18ywr5r6ha0csgif.gif

Porkloin
03-10-2015, 01:19 PM
If you buy 175,223,510 powerball tickets, you'll win with a 100% chance.



this is not true. read up on probability theory. if it were the case, then flipping a coin twice would have a 100% chance of coming up heads at least once.

I think they mean covering all the possibilities; i.e. you will indeed have one winner in there.

Morpayne
03-10-2015, 01:25 PM
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--UrkHmr75--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/18ywr5r6ha0csgif.gif

Awesome! Wtf is that?

Dalriaden
03-10-2015, 02:21 PM
Awesome! Wtf is that?

A decepticon, kill it.

Filmoret
03-10-2015, 03:09 PM
Nothing new here moving along. Its same old stupid rng system different day.