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Grimah
03-11-2015, 04:35 AM
Okay maybe im just really really bad luck, but i wanted to know has anyone managed to regrade this thing? 15 scrolls and its stuck on grand. Just wondering if its bugged or not.

If you have, please post here :P

Lanfear
03-11-2015, 05:19 AM
I once used 20 regrade scrolls on green boots, they stayed green.
It's not a bug, it's RNG...

Buckfast
03-11-2015, 05:30 AM
Obsidian sword --->11 scrolls ---> 11 gems ---> 400g and its only to rare alot of guild members have the same bad luck

leoleo
03-11-2015, 05:51 AM
120 normal scrolls + 8 resplendent + a lot of charms Green, Blue and 100% ones = obsidian scepter back always to Arcane!!!! this is not Rng this is fck, and i see a lot of "T3" players full, regrading stuff to divine... hack? i dont know

LiB
03-11-2015, 06:05 AM
The issue is the implementation of Rand_win.

It has a high tendency to repeat the same numbers.

Here's a hint...
If you get 3 consecutive failures. Stop, relog and try again.

I usually wait until the next day.

TenDesires
03-11-2015, 06:20 AM
The issue is the implementation of Rand_win.

It has a high tendency to repeat the same numbers.

Huh, you got it wrong, this is not what "repeating" in the context of a pseudorandom function means. It means that the sequence of numbers (which is way too long to even start being relevant for a video game) that a RNG generates will eventually repeat itself periodically (eg. 5-9-1-3-0-5-9-1-3-0-5-...).

If you pick three, ten or any consecutive numbers in the generated sequence, they will always appear to be completely unrelated.

Stlscott74
03-11-2015, 06:57 AM
Okay maybe im just really really bad luck, but i wanted to know has anyone managed to regrade this thing? 15 scrolls and its stuck on grand. Just wondering if its bugged or not.

If you have, please post here :P

Used 15 scrolls, last one being resplendant and now have a celestial t1. Was hoping for divine :-(

Kurve
03-11-2015, 07:01 AM
15 scrolls on a dagger, still grand.

say fk it and upgrade to t2, it's rare now.

First craft of obsidian shortspear rare proc on craft, 0 attempts to regrade because I'm poor :D

meh.

Meridian
03-11-2015, 07:23 AM
Saw quite a few divine upgrades on Ollo last night, including two lutes.

LiB
03-11-2015, 08:02 AM
Huh, you got it wrong, this is not what "repeating" in the context of a pseudorandom function means. It means that the sequence of numbers (which is way too long to even start being relevant for a video game) that a RNG generates will eventually repeat itself periodically (eg. 5-9-1-3-0-5-9-1-3-0-5-...).

If you pick three, ten or any consecutive numbers in the generated sequence, they will always appear to be completely unrelated.

Err no I didn't get it wrong... I said in the IMPLEMENTATION of...
Meaning... Simulating RNG via shuffling "set amount of outcomes" via a PRNG creates a scenario where numbers often repeat/stick.

My fault for not clearly communicating what I meant.

Ashrahm
03-11-2015, 08:51 AM
RNG is RNG and most of those stones to boost the chance haven't really seemed worth it to me.

Anyone else really notices the difference with some of the lower end ones.

TenDesires
03-11-2015, 09:00 AM
Err no I didn't get it wrong... I said in the IMPLEMENTATION of...
Meaning... Simulating RNG via shuffling "set amount of outcomes" via a PRNG creates a scenario where numbers often repeat/stick.

My fault for not clearly communicating what I meant.

I don't see why. Even the simple and quick LCG yields numbers that don't stick or correlate in any reasonably detectable way.

Having a set amount of outcomes doesn't change anything either, if you think like that because you get consecutive failures, that's merely because there's a high chance of failing.

Zenhii
03-11-2015, 09:38 AM
I don't see why. Even the simple and quick LCG yields numbers that don't stick or correlate in any reasonably detectable way.

Having a set amount of outcomes doesn't change anything either, if you think like that because you get consecutive failures, that's merely because there's a high chance of failing.

Regradless, I do feel there is a streak tendency in archeage. If I fail the first roll I will usually fail every following roll. If I succed once, chances are I will succed one the second and third try as well.
Meh, might just be rng acting up.

John Small
03-11-2015, 09:38 AM
crafted blue t1, 1 scroll arcane 4 scrolls heroic, crafted unique

Twans
03-11-2015, 09:41 AM
Took me 9 scrolls to get to unique. Resplendent to celestial and then resplendent to broken :P

Rustynail
03-11-2015, 09:41 AM
RNG in AA goes like this -0 /0/+0 good luck

Artegg
03-12-2015, 02:07 AM
52 scrolls. 2.5k Gold just to get my T1 obsidian to end up with an arcane Katana.

It went heroic once.

Bruglione
03-12-2015, 02:11 AM
Blew 11 scrolls on a Grand ring yesterday, even used 3 charms in the end, it didn't upgrade... Guess it just happens.

Navajoleo
03-12-2015, 06:32 AM
I always spam /roll until I get a number better than 95, and then regrade. Usually able to go from green to arcane without a terrible fuss. Granted, this is with Illus. armor..

LiB
03-12-2015, 06:34 AM
Regradless, I do feel there is a streak tendency in archeage. If I fail the first roll I will usually fail every following roll. If I succed once, chances are I will succed one the second and third try as well.
Meh, might just be rng acting up.

I've found this also...
When i Crafted a Scepter it proc'd at the first upgrade. By the time I crafted it to mag it was unique... all without regrade scrolls (and made within about 5 minutes).

What you find about RNG is that as soon as you start to apply formula's or limits to it then it becomes more prone to prediction / errors.
In this implementation of it it seems to cause these winning/losing streaks.

Hence why I suggested that if you fail 3 times in a row... stop and try again later.
(Also note... I have far better success during the week day mornings, I'm from the UK btw... I also see far more great successes on regrades during this time... I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of balancing applied here on a daily basis which means that the RNG outcome is being manipulated at the code level)

Maya4
03-12-2015, 07:41 AM
9 scrolls on a short spear - cellestial
over 100 on a shield - arcane :D

Jetfire33
03-12-2015, 07:48 AM
Okay maybe im just really really bad luck, but i wanted to know has anyone managed to regrade this thing? 15 scrolls and its stuck on grand. Just wondering if its bugged or not.

If you have, please post here :P

Only 30% base chance green to blue -- blue to purple. How it is. Some go straight through...some take 20. It's RNG.

LiB
03-12-2015, 08:53 AM
Only 30% base chance green to blue -- blue to purple. How it is. Some go straight through...some take 20. It's RNG.

The problem here is that those losing streaks are far too common.... the probability for the consecutive failure of a regrade from green to blue for 20 attempts is 0.0798% (rounded up).

It happens too often for it to be purely RNG.

Canute
03-12-2015, 09:13 AM
The thing is no one knows. Not the RNG is RNG crowd or those claiming there are streaks. The dev don't say. There could easily be intentional or unintentional weight applied to the formula. In some games it has been eventually proven the developers applied weight to algoriths to increase/decrease outcomes. And in games of this scope there can be unintentional errors in the code. But with a practically pure RNG you will also see "streaks" so it's impossible to be 100% certain even if developers confirmed it either way. Several times in previous MMOs I've played the devs confirmed something only later to admit they'd discovered an error and were wrong.

I personally think it's pretty close to a straight RNG roll but some of the streak patterns do pop up more often than I would expect.

Aldween
03-15-2015, 01:42 AM
52 scrolls. 2.5k Gold just to get my T1 obsidian to end up with an arcane Katana.

It went heroic once.

45 scrolls for my obsidian katana. 6k gold just to get my t1 obsidian to end up with an arcane katana.

It went unique 3 times.

I guess you saved money :)